Game-by-game percentage breakdown

We are now only a month away from some college football! Last month I broke down Florida State’s schedule and divided the schedule up into three parts. I had a handful of games labeled “guaranteed wins”,  “should-win games”, and “most difficult games”. Today, as we are closer to kickoff, I wanted to be a little more precise in my predictions so I’ve provided my % chance of FSU winning each individual game this season. Let me know which games you agree and disagree on.

9/3/11-Louisiana-Monroe-90% This is the 2011 season and home opener for the ‘Noles. It won’t be a sell out but there will be plenty of fans in attendance just excited that football season has returned. Unfortunately for ULM, this game should only be close for the first couple of minutes before the Seminoles’ offense runs the table. Fun fact: Louisiana-Monroe is actually a FBS program just like the ‘Noles.

9/10/11-Charleston Southern-95% Probably the least exciting game on the schedule, Charleston Southern is the one FCS team FSU faces this season. All the fans in attendance will have one thing on their mind after the ‘Noles take a dominating first half lead: Oklahoma. Neither of the first two games should be close, but that’s what everyone said about Appalachian State and James Madison; just ask Michigan and Virginia Tech how those games went.

9/17/11-Oklahoma-35% The biggest and most difficult game on the ‘Noles schedule in 2011, the Sooners will enter this game as the #1 team in the nation and they’ll likely leave this game with the same ranking. Neither team’s starting roster has changed much in the past season so the faces on the field will resemble last year’s game. I’m not predicting a 30-point blowout, as I do expect this game to be much closer than last season’s game. However, the OU offense will be too much for the ‘Noles and the Sooners will win by a touchdown.

9/24/11- @ Clemson-55% Following a mentally and physically tough game against Oklahoma, the Seminoles must travel to play Clemson the following week. This is probably the worst possible stadium to have to travel to following the Oklahoma game. Clemson will likely be the ‘Noles biggest competition in the Atlantic Division, making this game arguably the most important ACC game on the ‘Noles schedule. If Clemson defeats Auburn the week before, the Tigers will have all the momentum entering this game in one of the toughest ACC stadiums to play in. This is the most underrated game on FSU’s schedule.

10/1/11-Bye Week

10/8/11- @Wake Forest-85% Following a bye week, the Seminoles will be well rested and well prepared for a game against the worst team in the division. FSU dominated Wake Forest last season with a 31-0 victory at home. I expect a similar result this season when the ‘Noles travel to Wake Forest.

10/15/11- @Duke -85%- Expect this game to look very similar to the Wake Forest game. Duke is the worst team in the Coastal Division and this should be another easy victory for FSU. The Seminoles are 16-0 all-time versus Duke in football, don’t expect a Blue Devil victory in this game.

10/22/11- Maryland -70%- After being away from home for over a month, the Seminoles finally return to Doak in an Atlantic Divison showdown with the Terps. Maryland had a good season last year but once again lost to Florida State in a crucial game late in the season. With FSU being at home, I expect FSU to extend it’s lead late in the second half to secure the victory.

10/29/11- NC State -75%- No Russell Wilson, no problem. Good news for the ‘Noles, Russell Wilson is no longer the Wolfpack QB. Instead, he is in Wisconsin and NC State will be force to use a first-year starting quarterback. This is a perfect revenge game for FSU as they suffered a heartbreak loss last season in Raleigh, North Carolina.

11/3/11- @ Boston College -75% -Only four days after playing NC State, the ‘Noles must travel to Boston College to take on the Eagles. With little time to prepare and a long trip from Tallahassee, I expect the ‘Noles to start out slow in this game before taking control in the second half. The Eagles have to opportunity to make this game interesting in a Thursday night battle at Boston College.

11/12/11- Miami -65%- In-state rival travels to Tallahassee to face the Seminoles this season. In the last few meetings in this rivalry, the away team has had the upper hand. The ‘Canes will be one of the oldest and most experienced teams in 2011 and they’ll be looking for revenge when they play Florida State. However, this Seminole team won’t let Miami win inside Doak this season. This game will be much closer than the score of the game last season though.

11/19/11- Virginia -80% Virginia is a team on the rise in the ACC. Recently they’ve been one of the worst teams in the conference, but they have been recruiting much better and could be turning around their program. Interestingly, this game is stuck right in the middle of the Miami and Florida games this season. The ‘Noles must avoid looking past the Cavaliers in the final home game of the season in order to avoid an embarrassing upset.

11/26/11 @ Florida -50% The Gators will have an improved team under an improved coaching staff in 2011. With this game being the final regular season game in 2011, the Gators will be well adapted to the new coaching staff prior to this game. Plus, this game will be played in the Swamp and it’s never easy to win there. If this game was in Doak, I’d give the ‘Noles an upper hand. However, with it being played in Gainesville, this game will be a toss-up and a very exciting game to watch.

 

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2 thoughts on “Game-by-game percentage breakdown

  1. I agree 100% about the Clemson…everyones eye’s are on the OU game, but Death Valley is a very hard place to play & Clemson seems to always step up there game against us..lets not forget we barely got past Clemson last year in Tally thanks to that awesome field goal. FSU will be either coming off of a high or low depending on the outcome of the OU game, either way FSU can’t overlook Clemson..I feel the same way about the UVA game..Cavs are right in the middle of our rivalry games & as we have seen in the past, anything can happen in the game of college football

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